STRATEGIC DEFECTIONS TO THE UPND SIGNAL SHIFTING POLITICAL WINDS AHEAD OF AUGUST POLLS
With just over 140 days before Zambia heads to the polls on August 13, the political landscape is rapidly taking shape, and recent developments on the Copperbelt have underscored a growing reality: strategy, not sentiment, will determine political survival.
The decision by Kitwe Mayor Mpasa Mwaya to defect from the embattled and directionless Patriotic Front (PF) to the ruling United Party for National Development (UPND) is not only timely but emblematic of a broader recalibration taking place within the country’s political ecosystem. 
Mayor Mwaya’s move, made during a community engagement meeting addressed by President Hakainde Hichilema in Kitwe, reflects a pragmatic understanding of the current political tide.
It is a recognition that politics is as much about positioning as it is about ideology. With the PF increasingly showing signs of disorganisation and diminished electoral prospects, Mwaya’s decision signals both foresight and political maturity.
The Copperbelt Province remains one of the most decisive battlegrounds in Zambia’s electoral politics, and any shift in allegiance within this region carries significant implications.
By aligning herself with the UPND, Mwaya has not only strengthened the ruling party’s foothold but has also sent a clear message to other politicians who may still be hesitating: the time to act is now.
Importantly, Mwaya is not alone in this strategic realignment. Independent Roan Member of Parliament Joel Chibuye and youthful Chipata Mayor George Mwanza have also joined the UPND, citing the government’s delivery of development projects as a key motivating factor.
These defections reinforce the perception that the ruling party is gaining momentum based on tangible performance rather than mere rhetoric.
President Hichilema’s leadership style has also played a critical role in attracting new members. Widely regarded as a unitary leader, he has consistently emphasised inclusivity, unity, and national development.
His message to new entrants—to actively participate and help grow the party—demonstrates a forward-looking approach that prioritises collective effort over individual ambition.
Contrast this with the fragmented state of the opposition, where attempts at unity have repeatedly faltered.
The emergence of alliances such as the We Are One Zambia Alliance, while notable, raises more questions than answers.
The endorsement of figures like Kapembwa Simbao, a political nonentity at this late stage, appears less like a calculated strategy and more like a desperate attempt to remain relevant in an increasingly competitive political arena.
We Are One Zambia Alliance chairperson Sakwiba Sikota has spoken of unity and collective purpose, but the reality on the ground suggests that these formations lack the structural depth and grassroots support needed to mount a serious challenge. In politics, timing is everything, and last-minute endorsements rarely translate into electoral success.
Moreover, the proliferation of what can best be described as political clubs, rather than fully-fledged parties, further weakens the opposition’s credibility.
Without clear ideological direction, organisational strength, and a track record of delivery, such groupings struggle to inspire confidence among voters who are increasingly demanding results-driven leadership.
It is within this context that Mwaya, Chibuye, and Mwanza’s defections stand out as a model of strategic thinking.
Rather than remaining tethered to a declining political entity, the three Mayors have chosen to align themselves with a party that is not only in power but also demonstrating a commitment to development and national progress.
Their decisions should serve as a wake-up call to other progressive politicians across the political spectrum. Whether within the PF or other opposition parties, those who are serious about serving their electorate must carefully evaluate their positions. Loyalty is admirable, but it should not come at the expense of effectiveness.
As the countdown to the August elections continues, the choices made by political leaders today will have lasting consequences tomorrow.
Mpasa Mwaya, Joel Chibuye, George Mwanza, and several Councillors have made their choices, and in doing so, they have set a precedent.
In a season where every move counts, the local government elective senior officials’ decisions may well prove to be one of the most consequential shifts in Zambia’s evolving political narrative.
