The Editor Zambia
With less than two weeks before Zambians head to the polls, international attention is increasingly focusing on the country’s democratic process.
One of the latest assessments has come from the reputable United States-based Robert Lansing Institute for Global Threats and Democracies Studies (RLI), which has identified President Hakainde Hichilema and the United Party for National Development (UPND) as the favourites to retain power in the August 13 general elections. 
In a report released on Wednesday, the Delaware-based think tank said the most likely outcome is the re-election of President Hichilema together with the retention of a UPND-led parliamentary majority.
According to the institute, the ruling party has approximately a 60 percent chance of maintaining its majority under Zambia’s new mixed electoral system, while the likelihood of an opposition victory remains comparatively low.
The assessment reflects what many observers believe has been the defining feature of the President Hichilema’s administration over the past five years—an emphasis on economic recovery, institutional reform and social investment after inheriting an economy weighed down by debt and fiscal constraints.
Since taking office in 2021, the UPND government has embarked on an ambitious programme aimed at rebuilding public confidence through increased investment in essential public services.
Education, complete with a robust feeding programme has become one of the administration’s flagship sectors following the introduction of free education, a policy that has enabled hundreds of thousands of children who had previously dropped out of school because of fees to return to the classroom.
The recruitment of thousands of teachers has further strengthened the education system, easing classroom congestion and improving access to learning, particularly in rural communities.
Healthcare has witnessed similar reforms with the government recruiting thousands of health workers while increasing the availability of medicines and investing in new health infrastructure across the country.
New health posts, district hospitals, and medical equipment have expanded access to healthcare services in communities that were previously underserved.
Agriculture, the backbone of Zambia’s rural economy, has also featured prominently in the government’s development agenda.
Increased support for farmers through the Farmer Input Support Programme (FISP), coupled with favourable weather conditions and expanded cultivation, has resulted in record maize harvests that have strengthened food security.
Continued investment in irrigation, mechanisation, and value addition is expected to further enhance agricultural productivity.
The Constituency Development Fund (CDF) has perhaps become one of the most visible symbols of decentralised development under the current administration.
Increased allocations to constituencies have financed the construction of classroom blocks, health facilities, bridges, roads, markets, and youth empowerment initiatives in districts across the country.
Many communities that had waited years for basic infrastructure have benefited from projects financed through the expanded CDF.
Equally significant has been the expansion of the Social Cash Transfer programme, which has provided financial assistance to vulnerable households, helping cushion the effects of economic hardship while promoting social protection for the elderly, persons with disabilities and other disadvantaged groups.
On the economic front, the government has also earned recognition for restoring macroeconomic stability.
Successful debt restructuring negotiations, declining inflation, renewed support from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and increased investor confidence—particularly in the mining sector—have contributed to improving Zambia’s international reputation.
These achievements were among the factors cited by the Robert Lansing Institute in explaining its outlook for the August elections.
The institute also observed that Zambia’s constitutional reforms, including the introduction of proportional representation seats and reserved seats for women, youths and persons with disabilities, are expected to broaden representation while benefiting parties with nationwide organisational structures.
While elections remain competitive and ultimately depend on the choices made by voters, the think tank argues that President Hichilema enters the campaign with significant advantages associated with incumbency and a governance record that many supporters view as transformative.
It also suggested that the opposition faces the difficult task of persuading voters that it offers a more compelling alternative at a time when several economic and social indicators have shown improvement.
The assessment by the Robert Lansing Institute is respected by international analysts.
President Hichilema currently enjoys a measurable advantage based on his administration’s governance record and the breadth of development programmes implemented during his first term.
