The Editor Zambia
The latest increase in fuel prices by the Energy Regulation Board (ERB) has once again triggered public discontent, with motorists, businesses and ordinary citizens understandably concerned about the rising cost of living.
However, while the frustration is understandable, it is important to appreciate that fuel prices are not determined entirely within Zambia. 
They are largely influenced by developments in the international oil market, over which the country has very little control.
Last week, the ERB increased petrol prices by K1.60 to K33.06 per litre and diesel by K1.18 to K34.45 for November. Although nobody welcomes an increase in the price of an essential commodity such as fuel, the adjustment must be understood within the context of the realities of an import-dependent economy.
Zambia does not produce sufficient petroleum products to meet its domestic requirements. The country relies on imported fuel, meaning that what motorists pay at the pump is heavily influenced by international prices, the cost of importing finished petroleum products and the performance of the Kwacha against the United States Dollar.
This is an important distinction that appears to be lost in the political and public debate surrounding every fuel price adjustment.
Crude oil and refined petroleum products are internationally traded commodities whose prices respond to global supply and demand.
When major oil-producing countries reduce production, international inventories decline or demand increases, prices can rise.
Similarly, geopolitical tensions, wars and instability in oil-producing regions can disrupt supply chains and create uncertainty in international markets.
Zambia cannot dictate how much oil-producing countries charge for their products. Neither can the ERB instruct international suppliers to reduce their prices simply because Zambian consumers are struggling with the cost of living.
The cost of refining petroleum products also matters. Crude oil must undergo processing before it becomes petrol, diesel and other products used by consumers.
Refinery operating costs, shortages of refined products and international shipping expenses all contribute to the final import price.
For a landlocked country such as Zambia, transportation and logistics are particularly important. Fuel must be transported over considerable distances through regional supply routes before reaching filling stations. These costs inevitably become part of the price paid by consumers.
Another critical factor is the exchange rate. Petroleum imports are predominantly priced in United States Dollars. Consequently, whenever the Kwacha weakens against the dollar, Zambia requires more local currency to purchase the same quantity of fuel, even when international oil prices remain unchanged.
This is why fuel prices cannot be assessed by looking at international crude oil prices alone. The exchange rate, freight charges, insurance, procurement costs, taxes, and statutory levies also determine the final pump price.
It is therefore unfair to automatically attribute every increase to government incompetence or the ERB’s failure to protect consumers.
The regulator operates within an established pricing framework intended to reflect the actual costs of supplying petroleum products to the domestic market.
Indeed, the ERB’s responsibility is not to manufacture favourable international market conditions but to regulate the sector and ensure that pump prices reflect legitimate supply costs while protecting consumers from arbitrary pricing.
Last month’s increase of more than K6 per litre following the reinstatement of excise duty demonstrated how domestic fiscal decisions can also influence the final price.
However, that adjustment should not be confused with the November increase, which must be considered against the broader international and import-cost environment.
Of course, the government is not absolved of responsibility. It must continue exploring ways of reducing the burden on consumers, including improving the efficiency of fuel procurement, strengthening the Kwacha, reducing unnecessary distribution costs, and ensuring that taxes and levies remain sustainable.
Diversifying energy sources, particularly through renewable energy and electric mobility, should also form part of the long-term response.
But it would be misleading to promise Zambians that fuel prices can simply be frozen or reduced through political declarations when the underlying import costs remain high.
Artificially suppressing prices without addressing the cost of procurement can create arrears, distort the market, and threaten the sustainability of fuel supply.
What Zambia needs is an informed national conversation about energy security rather than the politicisation of every monthly price adjustment.
The reality is that Zambia is part of a global economy. When international petroleum prices rise, importing countries feel the consequences. When the dollar strengthens against the kwacha, the cost of fuel imports rises accordingly.
The ERB should, therefore, not be judged solely by whether it announces an increase or reduction, but by whether it applies the pricing framework transparently, consistently, and fairly.
Ultimately, motorists may dislike the November adjustment, but disliking an increase does not make its economic justification disappear.
Understanding the forces behind fuel prices is the first step towards having a sensible debate about how Zambia can reduce its vulnerability to international oil market shocks.
