The Editor Zambia
Politics is often a contest of narratives, but occasionally, a political leader offers a moment of candour that cuts through the noise.
The recent remarks by Citizens First president Harry Kalaba acknowledging that current opinion polls do not suggest the opposition can defeat President Hakainde Hichilema are a rare example of such honesty in Zambia’s political landscape. 
Kalaba’s admission is significant because it reflects what many neutral observers have quietly noted for some time but failed to mouth out.
As we remain with merely 157 days before the August 13, general elections, the opposition remains fragmented, disorganised, and uncertain about its strategy, while the governing United Party for National Development (UPND) continues consolidating its record in government.
Elections are ultimately won not only by criticism of the incumbent but by presenting a credible alternative, and at the moment, that alternative is yet to clearly, emerge.
Appearing on Diamond TV, Kalaba reflected on a series of opinion polls conducted by Patriotic Front (PF) information and publicity chairperson Emmanuel Mwamba in which President Hichilema, Kalaba himself and lawyer Makebi Zulu shared the lead.
While some in the opposition celebrated the results, Kalaba instead interpreted them as a warning sign and honestly stated that the numbers showed the opposition still had significant ground to cover before it could realistically challenge the current administration.
That level of introspection is important because for too long, sections of the opposition have behaved as though the mere existence of political dissatisfaction automatically translates into electoral victory.
But modern elections are far more complex because they require organisation, policy clarity, unity, and credible leadership.
The reality is that the opposition has struggled to demonstrate these qualities because barely a day passes without reports of opposition leaders quarrelling among themselves, trading accusations, and blaming the ruling party for their own internal disagreements.
Instead of presenting a coherent programme for governance, much of their energy is spent fighting internal battles or attempting to explain their lack of coordination.
In such an environment, it becomes difficult for voters to view the opposition as a government in waiting.
Kalaba himself appeared to recognise this challenge when he suggested that opposition parties may need to hold hands if they are to become stronger.
Coalition politics can be a powerful tool when it is driven by shared ideas and clear goals. However, alliances formed purely out of the desire to remove an incumbent rarely succeed. They often collapse under the weight of competing ambitions and ideological differences.
Meanwhile, the administration of President Hichilema has continued building a record that many voters are likely to weigh carefully when the next election approaches.
In the economic sphere, the government has pursued reforms aimed at stabilising the economy after years of fiscal strain.
Efforts to restructure Zambia’s external debt and restore investor confidence have been central to the administration’s strategy.
These steps have not solved every problem overnight, but they have contributed to renewed confidence in the country’s economic direction.
In agriculture, the government has continued to emphasise food security and support for farmers.
Programmes targeting improved input distribution and expanded production have been designed to strengthen rural livelihoods while ensuring national stability in staple food supply.
The health and education sectors have also seen notable developments. Recruitment of health workers and teachers has been one of the administration’s most visible initiatives, addressing long- standing staffing gaps in public institutions while creating employment opportunities for thousands of young professionals.
Equally important has been the government’s continued emphasis on restoring order and predictability in governance.
Investors and citizens alike tend to favour stability, and the administration has sought to project an image of institutional normalcy and policy consistency.
Against this backdrop, the opposition faces a difficult challenge. Criticism of government policies is a legitimate and necessary feature of democratic politics, but criticism alone does not automatically persuade voters.
What citizens often want to see is a clear alternative vision that convinces them their lives would improve under a different leadership.
So far, the opposition politics has struggled to articulate such a vision with clarity.
Kalaba’s willingness to acknowledge this gap may ultimately serve his political credibility.
By admitting that the numbers in opinion polls are not yet sufficient to defeat the government, he has signalled a degree of realism that is often missing in political discourse.
Kalaba’s decision that he would be willing to rally behind another candidate if citizens demanded it also hints at a broader recognition that unity and humility may be required if the opposition hopes to rebuild public confidence.
Whether such unity will materialise remains uncertain. Zambia’s opposition politics’ landscape is crowded with personalities, ambitions, and competing calculations. Building a coalition that can genuinely inspire voters will require far more than temporary alliances or rhetoric.
For now, the political picture remains relatively clear. President Hichilema’s administration continues to benefit from the advantages of incumbency combined with a visible record in several sectors, while the opposition remains in search of cohesion and a compelling national message.
Kalaba’s frank assessment, therefore, reflects not defeatism but political reality. If anything, it may serve as a wake-up call for opposition leaders who believe electoral success can be achieved without preparation, unity, and credible policy alternatives.
Until those elements come together, the polls are likely to continue telling the same story.
