By EditorZambia
The Chawama parliamentary by-election has delivered headlines, memes, and overblown conclusions—but it has not delivered a verdict on the popularity of the United Party for National Development (UPND).
To suggest otherwise is to mistake a localised protest vote for a national political earthquake. It is not. Chawama is an outlier, a constituency with a unique political history, and its result should be read with sobriety, not hysteria. 
Let us begin with the facts. The Electoral Commission of Zambia (ECZ) declared Forum for Democracy and Development (FDD) candidate Bright Nundwe winner after he polled 8,085 votes, defeating UPND’s Morgan Muunda who secured 6,542 votes. A total of 18,096 votes were cast, with 290 rejected ballots. The election was peaceful. The process held. Democracy worked.
But democracy also demands honest interpretation—and honesty requires acknowledging context.
The seat fell vacant not because of a wave of anti-UPND sentiment but because of the prolonged absence of former PF lawmaker Tasila Lungu. The declaration of vacancy, whether one agrees with it or not, triggered a moral backlash that shaped voter psychology in Chawama.
This was not a judgment on President Hakainde Hichilema’s economic reforms or governance style. It was a local reaction to a local controversy. To extrapolate national meaning from that is intellectually careless.
More importantly, Chawama has historically been Edgar Lungu’s political foothold. It is a constituency emotionally tethered to the former president and, by extension, to his daughter. The by-election, therefore became a rallying point for Tasila Lungu’s followers and Edgar Lungu’s remaining sympathisers—now politically homeless and scattered across proxy platforms. In this instance, they found a temporary shelter in the FDD, a little known party in Zambian politics. That does not amount to a rebirth of the opposition; it amounts to a reunion of nostalgia.
Indeed, if the opposition were truly resurgent, unity would have been organic and overwhelming. Instead, nine candidates crowded the ballot, exposing fragmentation rather than momentum. Voters themselves reduced the race to two contenders, underscoring a hard truth: fragmentation is punished. This was less a triumph of opposition strategy than a tactical convergence by voters who wanted to send a message on a specific issue in a specific place.
Outside Chawama, the political terrain tells a different story. The UPND remains the sole party with genuine national reach, functioning structures, and a coherent policy record.
President Hichilema’s leadership continues to anchor macroeconomic stability, debt restructuring, investment confidence, free education, expanded social protection, and the restoration of fiscal discipline. These are not slogans; they are outcomes felt across provinces—including regions once considered hostile political terrain.
Contrast this with an opposition in visible disarray. The former ruling party, the Patriotic Front (PF) is still mired in court battles, leadership confusion, and the absence of a compelling alternative agenda.
Newer parties struggle to break beyond social media noise. Old brands trade in recycled outrage. None has articulated a credible national plan that speaks to jobs, growth and governance with the seriousness Zambians demand.
The Chawama by-election also revealed a welcome evolution in campaign culture ushered in by the UPND, a considerate party above cheap politics of insults and violence. Peace prevailed. The police acted professionally. Cadre violence was conspicuously absent. That alone marks progress—and it happened under UPND stewardship. Those who insist on painting every electoral process as irredeemably compromised overlook this significant gain in Zambia’s democratic maturity since the UPND came into power.
Yes, debates about regulation, fairness, and perception will continue. They always do in competitive politics. But to weaponise Chawama as “proof” that the UPND has lost the people is to confuse noise for signal. By-elections are often shaped by sympathy, protest, and local grievance. General elections are shaped by performance, trust, and national direction. On those measures, the UPND remains firmly ahead.
So, let neither side hallucinate. The opposition should resist the temptation to turn a rare, isolated win into a prophecy of August 2026. As things stand now, President Hakainde Hichilema, the UPND, remains the country’s most popular, most organised, and most credible political force. All is not lost.
