Factors Behind the Drop of Mealie Meal Prices
The reduction in mealie meal prices isn’t just a coincidence or a result of the harvesting season alone but this is a testament to the robust agricultural policies implemented by President Hakainde Hichilema’s government, which have led to the projected bumper harvest this season, experts say.
According to experts in the field, the bumper harvest is a direct result of the government’s deliberate and well-targeted policies aimed at enhancing productivity and resilience in the agriculture sector. 
Initiatives such as the Farmer Input Support Program (FISP), the Sustainable Agriculture Finance Facility (SAFF) loan, and support for smallholder farmers are starting to bear fruit, boosting national food security and improving rural incomes.
Since taking office, President Hakainde Hichilema has repeatedly assured the nation that mealie meal prices would stabilise should Zambians actively participate in agriculture activities.
However, some individuals, particularly known propagandists, misinterpreted the President’s message when he encouraged people to invest in productive assets such as tractors, livestock, or land for growing maize, and other essential crops, rather than luxury items like high-end vehicles.
The President has been consistent in stating that the government was putting measures in place to support farmers, with the view to increasing maize production in the 2024/25 farming season and subsequently reducing mealie meal prices.
He emphasized that farmers would receive comprehensive support to boost annual maize yields.
Zambia operates a free market economy, characterized by supply and demand with minimal government control. A key principle of this system is voluntary exchange, where two parties freely trade goods or services.
Given this economic framework, what factors contributed to the surge in mealie meal prices, particularly from 2024 to 2025? Understanding the root cause of these price increases is crucial.
In a free market, prices are largely determined by demand and supply dynamics. When demand is low, prices tend to be low, and when demand is high, prices rise.
Considering the severe drought that affected 89 districts across the country, mainly in the Southern, Central, Western, and Eastern Provinces during the 2023/24 farming season, it was predictable that mealie meal prices would increase.
Some politicians, particularly from the PF, claimed that if Edgar Lungu was in office, mealie meal would be available at K130 despite the drought. However, this claim is misleading and contradicts basic economic principles.
For the record, the PF left a chaotic maize supply chain with huge debt owed to farmers who supplied maize to the food reserve agency dating back as 2017 marketing season.
The former ruling party even failed to supply inputs on time. This topic is for another day.
In contrast, President Hakainde Hichilema has consistently encouraged Zambians to venture into farming, not only for consumption but also to sell as a side hustle. This initiative has inspired many to engage in maize production, as evident in the upcoming bumper harvest.
Urban communities are increasingly embracing farming, contributing significantly to the national maize stocks.
As a result, many households are expected to have sufficient maize stocks, reducing their need to buy mealie meal in the 2025-2026 farming season. This decrease in demand should lead to lower staple food prices, providing relief to consumers. This explains why mealie meal prices have started to drop, even before the official maize marketing season has commenced.
Meanwhile, the Zambia National Service (ZNS), the Zambia Air Force (ZAF), the Zambia Army, and Zambia Correctional Service are yet to harvest their crop.
When all the defence forces offload their maize on the market, the prices of mealie meal are expected to drop further.
